Hurricane Emily; Jamaica

Only now being able to check my email after the GLUG meeting, I see that my friend Errol Hewitt had sent me an email at 5:17 a.m. Jamaica is under siege from the 3rd rendition of Hurricane Emily. It was only about 3 months ago that I was in Jamaica, and spent time with some of my friends in Jamaica - sadly I got to spend not time with Errol, who was on the other side of the island - the side which is presently feeling the effects of Emily.

His message this morning:

Hi Taran,
This is where we stand 5-6 hours before the eye passes in line to Kingston. Remember that the attached relates only to the eye and the eye-wall.
We are hoping that the four hours it travelled due West yesterday instead of WNW may have kept us out of the hurricane level winds. We'll see -- its now up to Category 4. Will keep you informed
Errol

The image he sent is here:

I've had no word from him, or others from Jamaica, since then - but the latest news from Reuters is that Fierce Hurricane Emily blasts along Jamaica coast, in which they indicate that Emily may become a Category 5 Hurricane. That falls into the 'not good' category. An excerpt from the article:

KINGSTON, Jamaica, July 16 (Reuters) - Hurricane Emily roared past Jamaica's southern coast on Saturday, hammering the Caribbean island with torrential rains and pounding surf as Mexico began evacuations in anticipation of the storm's 155 mph winds.

Emily's power was on the verge of making it a rare Category 5 storm on the five-step scale of hurricane intensity, one capable of destroying buildings.

Although Emily's raging core and worst winds stayed in the Caribbean Sea more than 100 miles (160 km) off Jamaica's southern coast, the storm was large enough and strong enough to trigger flooding and mudslides on the island, home to about 2.6 million people.

At 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), the center of Emily was about 135 miles (217 km) southwest of Kingston and was moving to the west-northwest at about 18 mph (29 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

Forecasters said Emily would skirt the Cayman Islands, a tiny British colony, before pushing across the Caribbean and striking Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday...

Bear in mind that Hurricane Dennis had already caused flooding in Jamaica, and I'm not sure that the flooding from that had receded completely before this happened. Obviously there should be a great level of concern for Jamaicans.

The immediate effects of flooding and mudslides, as happened in Grenada (thankfully with only one person dead), can mean injuries and fatalities. But it's the long term effects that are the main issue, in that the quality of life of millions of people may be affected as agricultural crops, infrastructure, and many other things can be adversely affected. While some may read about dollar amounts lost, the Jamaican coffee farmers (as an example) already have financial problems - and with the heavy rains in the mountains of Jamaica, as well as the winds, what may have been a challenge before will become more so now.

Errol, Valerie, Alton, Donovan, and the rest... hang in there.