Hurricane Emily Returns

Out of tropical storms, hurricanes are born - and reborn. Hurricane Emily has been around before - in 1981, 1987 and now 2005.

The latest NOAA Advisory on Hurricane Emily:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 140258
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM CUMANA TO PUNTO FIJO ON THE
PARAGUANA PENINSULA.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...
TOBAGO...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...EMILY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
EMERGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.9 N... 61.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

From this infrared image of Emily, it looks like Tobago has been hit. It was hit last year by Hurricane Ivan - and maybe because of that Trinidad and Tobago has reacted to Emily more seriously. 500 people were evacuated yesterday from Tobago, which is sensible.

However, sending the Trinidad and Tobago Defence Force to Tobago *before* the Hurricane seems a bit senseless. With an airplane, troops could get there within an hour or less. By sea, following Emily out is possible (Venezuala did that last year to support Grenada after Hurricane Ivan). Sending troops in before the hurricane seems to be risking the lives of troops unnecessarily, wnd could diminish their effectiveness after the hurricane leaves.

Tobago has had a lot of problems over the last few years. The ship that normally transporting food and people across daily (the ferry) was out of service since before Hurricane Ivan, and afterward some ships were rented and then discontinued. I don't know what the status of the sea transport is now, but in the past Tobago has suffered quite a bit since the ferry is used to transport foodstuffs to Tobago from Trinidad. This is a serious issue that the Government of Trinidad and Tobago hasn't been able to address consistently or reasonably in the past, and will be a long term focus for Tobago - especially after a Hurricane.

Airport closures for Trinidad and Tobago as well as other islands will affect travel through the region.